The United States is grappling with a difficult situation in the Middle East as it tries to prevent the ongoing conflict from spiraling out of control. The initial goal of stopping the Israel-Gaza conflict from triggering a larger regional war has become increasingly challenging. President Joe Biden now faces the critical task of preventing the situation from escalating further, especially in light of the recent attack by suspected Iranian proxy forces in Jordan that resulted in the deaths of three Americans.
While President Biden has made it clear that he holds Tehran responsible for supplying weapons to the attackers, he is cautious about avoiding a wider war in the Middle East. However, the US is already embroiled in a broader regional conflict, despite Biden’s efforts to prevent escalation. Previous US strikes against Iranian-backed militias and infrastructure have not deterred further attacks, and missile and drone strikes on commercial shipping in the Red Sea continue unabated.
The current situation has put President Biden in a difficult position, where all potential options carry risks, and attempting to slow down the crisis may inadvertently exacerbate it. The violence unfolding outside of Gaza, including Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, US strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, and Iran’s blame on Israel for an attack in Syria, highlights the gravity of the situation.
While the conflict has so far been characterized by controlled escalations, there is no guarantee that it will remain that way. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned that the region is facing a dangerous time, unlike anything seen since at least 1973. Middle East peace negotiator Aaron David Miller is even less optimistic, stating that the situation is likely to worsen before any improvement is seen.
The political context at home further complicates President Biden’s decision-making process. He cannot afford to appear weak or lose control, especially with accusations from his predecessor, Donald Trump, and hawkish Republicans demanding military action against Iran. However, the lessons from previous US policy in the Middle East, including Trump’s assassination of Iranian intelligence chief Qasem Soleimani, suggest that direct military action may not yield the desired results and could lead to further escalation.
The US response to the recent attack is expected to be more powerful than previous strikes against Iranian interests in Iraq and Syria. However, it is unlikely that the US will strike within Iran itself. The Biden administration has repeatedly emphasized that it does not seek a war with Iran or its clerical regime. The consequences of such strikes would likely be highly escalatory, potentially triggering major conflicts involving Hezbollah and causing significant US casualties.
Instead, the most probable outcome is a series of punishing attacks against the capabilities of Iranian proxies. President Biden must navigate the delicate balance of asserting US power without exacerbating the conflict further. The ongoing diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza add further complexity to the situation, as any military action must be carefully considered to avoid derailing these negotiations.
In conclusion, the United States is facing a challenging dilemma in the Middle East as it seeks to prevent the conflict from escalating. President Biden must consider his options to assert US power without triggering a wider war or endangering US forces. The ongoing diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza further complicate the decision-making process. The situation remains highly volatile, and the path forward is uncertain.